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Atlético Pulpileño vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas II
Águilas II
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño44%
×Draw30%
Águilas II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pulpileño
1.20
Águilas II
0.84

Atlético Pulpileño creates 43% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño
1.37
Águilas II
1.03

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño
0.66
Águilas II
1.03

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par
Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Águilas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw
74%
Atlético Pulpileño or Águilas II
70%
Draw or Águilas II
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
19%
Águilas II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
12%
Águilas II 1+ goals
57%
Águilas II 2+ goals
21%
Águilas II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
63%
Águilas II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more
44%
level
30%
Águilas II scores more
26%

Atlético Pulpileño at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Atlético Pulpileño 1–0 Águilas II

Atlético Pulpileño beat Águilas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.