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Atlético Pueblonuevo vs Castuera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Castuera
Castuera
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo47%
×Draw27%
Castuera26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.45
Castuera
1.00

Atlético Pueblonuevo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.30
Castuera
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.11
Castuera
1.59

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par
Castuera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

Castuera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw
74%
Atlético Pueblonuevo or Castuera
73%
Draw or Castuera
53%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
23%
Castuera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
42%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
18%
Castuera 1+ goals
63%
Castuera 2+ goals
26%
Castuera 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
65%
Castuera (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Castuera away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + Castuera defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Castuera attack 0.88 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
47%
level
27%
Castuera scores more
26%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1 – 2 Castuera

Castuera beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Amaya in Pueblonuevo del Guadiana.