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Atlético Porcuna vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
CANC
00:00
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Atlético Porcuna59%
×Draw22%
Melilla CD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Porcuna
1.95
Melilla CD
1.03

Atlético Porcuna creates 89% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.29
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.24
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw
80%
Atlético Porcuna or Melilla CD
78%
Draw or Melilla CD
41%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
35%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
31%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
64%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
28%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
75%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.95

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more
59%
level
22%
Melilla CD scores more
20%

Atlético Porcuna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atlético Porcuna host Melilla CD

March 29, 2020: Atlético Porcuna take on Melilla CD in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atlético Porcuna host Melilla CD at Estadio Municipal San Benito.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.