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Atlético Porcuna vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Porcuna53%
×Draw25%
Malaga City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Porcuna
1.63
Malaga City
0.96

Atlético Porcuna creates 70% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 49 away

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.29
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna
1.24
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw
78%
Atlético Porcuna or Malaga City
75%
Draw or Malaga City
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
28%
Malaga City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
48%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
22%
Malaga City 1+ goals
62%
Malaga City 2+ goals
25%
Malaga City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
70%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more
53%
level
25%
Malaga City scores more
22%

Atlético Porcuna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Porcuna 2 – 1 Malaga City

Atlético Porcuna beat Malaga City 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Benito in Porcuna.