Atlético Porcuna 4–2 Alhaurín: Result & Stats

Atlético Porcuna

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Alhaurín

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Atlético Porcuna52%

×Draw24%

Alhaurín24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PorcunaExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.11

Atlético Porcuna

1.75

Alhaurín

1.11

Atlético Porcuna creates 58% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 43 away

1.29

creates per match

0.98

1.24

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.29

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.24

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Alhaurín →

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw

76%

Atlético Porcuna or Alhaurín

76%

Draw or Alhaurín

48%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

29%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

25%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

67%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

30%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

68%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.75

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more

52%

level

24%

Alhaurín scores more

24%

Atlético Porcuna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Porcuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Porcuna 4–2 Alhaurín

Atlético Porcuna beat Alhaurín 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Benito in Porcuna.

Atlético Porcuna vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Atlético Porcuna 4–2 Alhaurín