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Atlético Pinto vs Unión Adarve — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto41%
×Draw28%
Unión Adarve31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.29
Unión Adarve
1.09

Atlético Pinto creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
Unión Adarve
1.18

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
Unión Adarve
1.27

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

Unión Adarve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
69%
Atlético Pinto or Unión Adarve
72%
Draw or Unión Adarve
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
18%
Unión Adarve wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
14%
Unión Adarve 1+ goals
66%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
30%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
57%
Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
41%
level
28%
Unión Adarve scores more
31%

Atlético Pinto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pinto 1 – 2 Unión Adarve

Unión Adarve beat Atlético Pinto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.