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Atlético Pinto vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
CANC
00:00
Torrejón
Torrejón
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 35Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto43%
×Draw26%
Torrejón30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.41
Torrejón
1.13

Atlético Pinto creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 115 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
70%
Atlético Pinto or Torrejón
74%
Draw or Torrejón
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
21%
Torrejón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
17%
Torrejón 1+ goals
68%
Torrejón 2+ goals
31%
Torrejón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
59%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
43%
level
26%
Torrejón scores more
30%

Atlético Pinto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pinto face Torrejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with Atlético Pinto hosting Torrejón. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Pinto host Torrejón at Estadio Amelia del Castillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.