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Atlético Pinto vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto35%
×Draw25%
Leganés II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.32
Leganés II
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
60%
Atlético Pinto or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
15%
Leganés II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
15%
Leganés II 1+ goals
76%
Leganés II 2+ goals
42%
Leganés II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
46%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
35%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
40%

Leganés II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pinto 1 – 2 Leganés II

Leganés II beat Atlético Pinto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.