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Atlético Pinto vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Álamo
El Álamo
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto53%
×Draw25%
El Álamo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.58
El Álamo
0.93

Atlético Pinto creates 70% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
78%
Atlético Pinto or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
28%
El Álamo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
21%
El Álamo 1+ goals
61%
El Álamo 2+ goals
24%
El Álamo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
70%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
53%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
22%

Atlético Pinto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Atlético Pinto 2–1 El Álamo

Atlético Pinto beat El Álamo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.