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Atlético Pinto vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AD Parla
AD Parla
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto48%
×Draw26%
AD Parla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.48
AD Parla
0.99

Atlético Pinto creates 49% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 98 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
75%
Atlético Pinto or AD Parla
74%
Draw or AD Parla
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
24%
AD Parla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
19%
AD Parla 1+ goals
63%
AD Parla 2+ goals
26%
AD Parla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
66%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
48%
level
26%
AD Parla scores more
25%

Atlético Pinto at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Atlético Pinto 1–1 AD Parla

Atlético Pinto and AD Parla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.