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Atletico Pilar vs Nautico Hacoaj — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Atletico Pilar
Atletico Pilar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Nautico Hacoaj
Nautico Hacoaj
2/25/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 1Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atletico Pilar21%
×Draw26%
Nautico Hacoaj53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Pilar
0.82
Nautico Hacoaj
1.50

Nautico Hacoaj creates 83% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Atletico Pilar
1.14
Nautico Hacoaj
1.27

allows per match

Atletico Pilar
1.73
Nautico Hacoaj
0.50

finishing

Atletico Pilar+0.00on par
Nautico Hacoaj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Pilar ↓

Nautico Hacoaj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Pilar or draw
47%
Atletico Pilar or Nautico Hacoaj
74%
Draw or Nautico Hacoaj
79%

Winning margin

Atletico Pilar wins by 2+
6%
Nautico Hacoaj wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Atletico Pilar 1+ goals
56%
Atletico Pilar 2+ goals
20%
Atletico Pilar 3+ goals
5%
Nautico Hacoaj 1+ goals
78%
Nautico Hacoaj 2+ goals
44%
Nautico Hacoaj 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atletico Pilar (draw refunded)
28%
Nautico Hacoaj (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Pilar at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Nautico Hacoaj away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Pilar attack 1.14 + Nautico Hacoaj defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Nautico Hacoaj attack 1.27 + Atletico Pilar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Pilar scores more
21%
level
26%
Nautico Hacoaj scores more
53%

Nautico Hacoaj at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nautico Hacoaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Atletico Pilar 2–3 Nautico Hacoaj

Nautico Hacoaj beat Atletico Pilar 3-2 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.