Atlético Paso 1–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Atlético Paso

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Úrsula

11/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso60%

×Draw23%

Santa Úrsula17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PasoExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.80

Atlético Paso

1.75

Santa Úrsula

0.80

Atlético Paso creates 119% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 92 away

1.98

creates per match

0.90

0.70

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atlético Paso

1.98

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Atlético Paso

0.70

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw

83%

Atlético Paso or Santa Úrsula

77%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

40%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

34%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

25%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

55%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

19%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

78%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Paso scores more

60%

level

23%

Santa Úrsula scores more

17%

Atlético Paso at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 1–1 Santa Úrsula

Atlético Paso and Santa Úrsula drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.

Atlético Paso vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 1–1 Santa Úrsula