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Atlético Paso vs Marino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Marino
Marino
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso60%
×Draw23%
Marino18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.81
Marino
0.86

Atlético Paso creates 110% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 95 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Marino
1.03

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Marino
1.64

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Marino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
82%
Atlético Paso or Marino
77%
Draw or Marino
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
34%
Marino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
27%
Marino 1+ goals
58%
Marino 2+ goals
21%
Marino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
77%
Marino (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Marino attack 1.03 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
60%
level
23%
Marino scores more
18%

Atlético Paso at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 2–1 Marino

Atlético Paso beat Marino 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.