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Atlético Paso vs Atlético Tacoronte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tacoronte
Atlético Tacoronte
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Atlético Paso65%
×Draw21%
Atlético Tacoronte14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.97
Atlético Tacoronte
0.78

Atlético Paso creates 153% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Atlético Tacoronte
0.86

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Atlético Tacoronte
1.96

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Atlético Tacoronte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
86%
Atlético Paso or Atlético Tacoronte
79%
Draw or Atlético Tacoronte
35%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
40%
Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
31%
Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals
54%
Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
82%
Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Atlético Tacoronte away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.97

Atlético Tacoronte attack 0.86 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
65%
level
21%
Atlético Tacoronte scores more
14%

Atlético Paso at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 2–1 Atlético Tacoronte

Atlético Paso beat Atlético Tacoronte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.