Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo SP — Serie B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Atletico Paranaense57%
Botafogo SP18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Paranaense creates 108% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Paranaense ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.73 · 10 matches
Botafogo SP away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.52 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Paranaense attack 1.65 + Botafogo SP defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58
Botafogo SP attack 0.78 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Atletico Paranaense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Criciuma
Operario-PRBotafogo SP
Goias
Avai
Juventude
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
Londrina
Athletic Club
Ceara
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
Sport Recife
America Mineiro
São Bernardo
Ponte PretaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico Paranaense host Botafogo SP on Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 21:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP beat Atletico Paranaense 4-1 in Serie B on May 4, 2025.
Goals: Tevis (16'), L. Maciel (24' pen), Jonathan Cafu (45'), Alexandre Jesus (60', 68').
Botafogo SP controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 11.
The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba.