Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Amazonas: Result & Stats

Atletico Paranaense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amazonas

Julimar 71', 18'

10/28/2025

Serie B · Round 34Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atletico Paranaense51%

×Draw29%

Amazonas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.71

Atletico Paranaense

1.31

Amazonas

0.71

Atletico Paranaense creates 85% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

0.79

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.21

Amazonas

0.63

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.79

Amazonas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

80%

Atletico Paranaense or Amazonas

71%

Draw or Amazonas

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

24%

Amazonas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

14%

Amazonas 1+ goals

51%

Amazonas 2+ goals

16%

Amazonas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

72%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.21 + Amazonas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Amazonas attack 0.63 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

51%

level

29%

Amazonas scores more

20%

Atletico Paranaense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Julimar

Atletico Paranaense · F

9.5

Match Events

18'

Julimar↳ Felipinho

29'

Alan Kardec

30'

Alan KardecCard reviewed

46'

Patrick← Dudu Kogitzki

46'

Luiz Fernando← Alan Kardec

46'

J. Torres← Gabriel Domingos

46'

Rafael Tavares← Philippe Guimaraes

52'

Luan Silva← K. Ramirez

56'

Luan Silva

61'

Nilson Castrillón

71'

Julimar↳ Leozinho

75'

K. Velasco← Julimar

77'

Kiko← Henrique Almeida

77'

Guilherme Xavier← D. Torres

85'

Joao Cruz← Leozinho

89'

Carlos Teran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAmazonas

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots10

1.83Expected Goals (xG)0.74

4Corners3

21Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots10

9On Target3

7Off Target6

3Blocked1

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

482Total Passes408

420Accurate Passes312

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

21Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie B: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Amazonas

Atletico Paranaense beat Amazonas 2-0 in Serie B on October 28, 2025.

Goals: Julimar (18', 71').

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba.

Atletico Paranaense vs Amazonas — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Amazonas