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Atletico Parana vs Racing Cordoba — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
7/10/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 18Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana29%
×Draw30%
Racing Cordoba40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
0.91
Racing Cordoba
1.12

Racing Cordoba creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Racing Cordoba
0.93

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Racing Cordoba
0.81

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Racing Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
60%
Atletico Parana or Racing Cordoba
70%
Draw or Racing Cordoba
71%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
10%
Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
60%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
23%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
6%
Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
31%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Racing Cordoba away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Racing Cordoba attack 0.93 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
29%
level
30%
Racing Cordoba scores more
40%

Racing Cordoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Atletico Parana 2–2 Racing Cordoba

Atletico Parana and Racing Cordoba drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.