Atletico Parana 1–3 Juventud Antoniana

Atletico Parana

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Juventud Antoniana

9/25/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 31Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana41%

×Draw29%

Juventud Antoniana29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaExpected goals in this matchJuventud Antoniana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.95

Atletico Parana

1.19

Juventud Antoniana

0.95

Atletico Parana creates 25% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

1.00

creates per match

0.58

1.31

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Atletico Parana

1.00

Juventud Antoniana

0.58

allows per match

Atletico Parana

1.31

Juventud Antoniana

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Juventud Antoniana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw

71%

Atletico Parana or Juventud Antoniana

71%

Draw or Juventud Antoniana

59%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+

18%

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals

70%

Atletico Parana 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Parana 3+ goals

12%

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals

61%

Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals

25%

Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)

59%

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Juventud Antoniana away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Juventud Antoniana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Juventud Antoniana attack 0.58 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Parana scores more

41%

level

29%

Juventud Antoniana scores more

29%

Atletico Parana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff