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Atletico Parana vs Douglas Haig — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Douglas Haig
Douglas Haig
11/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 11Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana33%
×Draw30%
Douglas Haig37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.04
Douglas Haig
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Douglas Haig
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Douglas Haig
1.07

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Douglas Haig+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Douglas Haig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
63%
Atletico Parana or Douglas Haig
70%
Draw or Douglas Haig
67%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
13%
Douglas Haig wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
9%
Douglas Haig 1+ goals
67%
Douglas Haig 2+ goals
30%
Douglas Haig 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
47%
Douglas Haig (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Douglas Haig away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Douglas Haig defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Douglas Haig attack 0.91 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
33%
level
30%
Douglas Haig scores more
37%

Douglas Haig at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Douglas Haig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Atletico Parana 0–1 Douglas Haig

Douglas Haig beat Atletico Parana 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos).