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Atletico Parana vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
11/23/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 15Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana38%
×Draw28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.18
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.90

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.35

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
66%
Atletico Parana or Defensores de Belgrano VR
72%
Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR
62%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
16%
Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
12%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
67%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
30%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
53%
Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
38%
level
28%
Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
34%

Atletico Parana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Parana 3 – 1 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Atletico Parana beat Defensores de Belgrano VR 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio (Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos).