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Atletico Parana vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
6/22/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 15Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana40%
×Draw28%
Boca Unidos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.27
Boca Unidos
1.10

Atletico Parana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 105 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Boca Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Boca Unidos
1.54

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
68%
Atletico Parana or Boca Unidos
72%
Draw or Boca Unidos
60%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
18%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
72%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
36%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
14%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
67%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
30%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
56%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
40%
level
28%
Boca Unidos scores more
32%

Atletico Parana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Atletico Parana 0–0 Boca Unidos

Atletico Parana and Boca Unidos drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.