Atlético Pantoja 3–0 Universidad O&M

Atlético Pantoja

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad O&M

C. Sarante 79'

B. Louka 55'

E. Guerrero 48'

1/11/2026

Liga Mayor · Winners Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Pantoja69%

×Draw20%

Universidad O&M11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PantojaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad O&M

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.63

Atlético Pantoja

1.98

Universidad O&M

0.63

Atlético Pantoja creates 214% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

0.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Atlético Pantoja

2.33

Universidad O&M

1.25

allows per match

Atlético Pantoja

0.00

Universidad O&M

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pantoja ↓

Universidad O&M →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Pantoja or draw

89%

Atlético Pantoja or Universidad O&M

80%

Draw or Universidad O&M

31%

Winning margin

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+

43%

Universidad O&M wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals

86%

Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals

59%

Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals

31%

Universidad O&M 1+ goals

47%

Universidad O&M 2+ goals

13%

Universidad O&M 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)

86%

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pantoja at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Universidad O&M away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pantoja attack 2.33 + Universidad O&M defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Universidad O&M attack 1.25 + Atlético Pantoja defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Atlético Pantoja scores more

69%

level

20%

Universidad O&M scores more

11%

Atlético Pantoja at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

E. Guerrero

55'

B. Louka

79'

C. Sarante

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff