Atlético Pantoja 2–2 Moca: Result & Stats

Atlético Pantoja

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Moca

3/17/2024

Liga Mayor · Round 2Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Atlético Pantoja45%

×Draw27%

Moca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PantojaExpected goals in this matchMoca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Atlético Pantoja

1.39

Moca

1.04

Atlético Pantoja creates 34% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 73 away

1.64

creates per match

1.15

0.94

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atlético Pantoja

1.64

Moca

1.15

allows per match

Atlético Pantoja

0.94

Moca

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Moca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pantoja ↓

Moca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Pantoja or draw

72%

Atlético Pantoja or Moca

73%

Draw or Moca

55%

Winning margin

Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+

21%

Moca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals

40%

Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals

16%

Moca 1+ goals

65%

Moca 2+ goals

28%

Moca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)

61%

Moca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pantoja at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 80 matches

Moca away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.64 + Moca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Moca attack 1.15 + Atlético Pantoja defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Pantoja scores more

45%

level

27%

Moca scores more

28%

Atlético Pantoja at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff