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Atlético Palmaflor vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
10/5/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 26Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor60%
×Draw22%
Vaca Díez18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.92
Vaca Díez
0.96

Atlético Palmaflor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
82%
Atlético Palmaflor or Vaca Díez
78%
Draw or Vaca Díez
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
35%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
57%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
30%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
62%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
25%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
76%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
60%
level
22%
Vaca Díez scores more
18%

Atlético Palmaflor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Atlético Palmaflor 2–2 Vaca Díez

Atlético Palmaflor and Vaca Díez drew 2-2 in Primera División on October 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari in Villa Tunari.