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Atlético Palmaflor vs Guabirá — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Guabirá
Guabirá
7/25/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 11Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor59%
×Draw23%
Guabirá19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.83
Guabirá
0.92

Atlético Palmaflor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 129 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Guabirá
2.27

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
81%
Atlético Palmaflor or Guabirá
77%
Draw or Guabirá
41%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
34%
Guabirá wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
54%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
28%
Guabirá 1+ goals
60%
Guabirá 2+ goals
23%
Guabirá 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
76%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.83

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
59%
level
23%
Guabirá scores more
19%

Atlético Palmaflor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Atlético Palmaflor 2–1 Guabirá

Atlético Palmaflor beat Guabirá 2-1 in Primera División on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.