Atlético Palmaflor 3–1 Club Universitario

Atlético Palmaflor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Club Universitario

5/14/2022

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor60%

×Draw24%

Club Universitario16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PalmaflorExpected goals in this matchClub Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.76

Atlético Palmaflor

1.72

Club Universitario

0.76

Atlético Palmaflor creates 126% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 22 away

1.40

creates per match

0.59

0.92

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor

1.40

Club Universitario

0.59

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor

0.92

Club Universitario

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Club Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw

84%

Atlético Palmaflor or Club Universitario

76%

Draw or Club Universitario

40%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

34%

Club Universitario wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

51%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

25%

Club Universitario 1+ goals

53%

Club Universitario 2+ goals

18%

Club Universitario 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

79%

Club Universitario (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.72

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

60%

level

24%

Club Universitario scores more

16%

Atlético Palmaflor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff