Atlético Palmaflor 0–1 Aurora: Result & Stats

Atlético Palmaflor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aurora

8/18/2023

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor53%

×Draw25%

Aurora22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PalmaflorExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Atlético Palmaflor

1.63

Aurora

0.97

Atlético Palmaflor creates 68% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 130 away

1.40

creates per match

1.02

0.92

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor

1.40

Aurora

1.02

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor

0.92

Aurora

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw

78%

Atlético Palmaflor or Aurora

75%

Draw or Aurora

47%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

28%

Aurora wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

22%

Aurora 1+ goals

62%

Aurora 2+ goals

25%

Aurora 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

70%

Aurora (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aurora attack 1.02 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

53%

level

25%

Aurora scores more

22%

Atlético Palmaflor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff