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Atlético Palmaflor vs Always Ready — Primera División 2019

Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Always Ready
Always Ready
5/31/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor43%
×Draw26%
Always Ready31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Palmaflor
1.46
Always Ready
1.21

Atlético Palmaflor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 129 away

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor
1.40
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor
0.92
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw
69%
Atlético Palmaflor or Always Ready
74%
Draw or Always Ready
57%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
21%
Always Ready wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
18%
Always Ready 1+ goals
70%
Always Ready 2+ goals
34%
Always Ready 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
58%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more
43%
level
26%
Always Ready scores more
31%

Atlético Palmaflor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Palmaflor vs Always Ready

Always Ready beat Atlético Palmaflor 2-0 in Primera División on May 31, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Villa Tunari in Villa Tunari.