Atlético Ottawa 3–1 Pacific FC: Result & Stats

Atlético Ottawa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pacific FC

D. Rodriguez 69'

G. Antinoro 64'

K. Santos 55'

R. Kratt 37'

5/3/2025

Canadian Premier League · Round 5TD Place Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Atlético Ottawa43%

×Draw26%

Pacific FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético OttawaExpected goals in this matchPacific FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Atlético Ottawa

1.44

Pacific FC

1.19

Atlético Ottawa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 86 away

1.37

creates per match

1.12

1.26

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atlético Ottawa

1.37

Pacific FC

1.12

allows per match

Atlético Ottawa

1.26

Pacific FC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Ottawa+0.00on par

Pacific FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ottawa ↓

Pacific FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Ottawa or draw

69%

Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC

74%

Draw or Pacific FC

57%

Winning margin

Atlético Ottawa wins by 2+

21%

Pacific FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Ottawa 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Ottawa 2+ goals

42%

Atlético Ottawa 3+ goals

18%

Pacific FC 1+ goals

70%

Pacific FC 2+ goals

33%

Pacific FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ottawa (draw refunded)

58%

Pacific FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ottawa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

Pacific FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ottawa attack 1.37 + Pacific FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pacific FC attack 1.12 + Atlético Ottawa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Ottawa scores more

43%

level

26%

Pacific FC scores more

31%

Atlético Ottawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Ottawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

32'

37'

55'

63'

64'

G. Antinoro↳ B. Tabla

67'

J. Quintana

67'

A. Daniels← R. Kratt

69'

D. Rodriguez↳ S. Salter

73'

A. Zapater← B. Tabla

81'

G. Mukumbilwa← M. Bustos

81'

D. Zanatta← J. Heard

82'

J. Coulanges← K. Santos

Atlético

Pacific

55

7

5

3

44

6

20

34

10

▼

Bustos

11

▼

Heard

27

⚽

▼

Kratt

29

Ingham

55

▼

28

84

2

10

7

⚽

Rodriguez

11

⚽

Antinoro

13

A

▼

Tabla

9

A

Salter

19

⚽

▼

Santos

Manager: Diego Andrei Mejía Campo

32'▲T. Walker←▼A. Didic

73'▲A. Zapater←▼B. Tabla

82'▲J. Coulanges←▼K. Santos

Atlético Ottawa substitutes

30Khoury6Ortega8Verhoeven20Coulanges4Walker21Zapater1Crampton

Manager: James Merriman

67'▲A. Daniels←▼R. Kratt

81'▲G. Mukumbilwa←▼M. Bustos

81'▲D. Zanatta←▼J. Heard

Pacific FC substitutes

50Anchor14Machado8Daniels2Mukumbilwa9Zanatta

Canadian Premier League: Atlético Ottawa 3–1 Pacific FC

Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 3-1 in Canadian Premier League on May 3, 2025.

Goals: R. Kratt (37'), K. Santos (55'), G. Antinoro (64'), D. Rodriguez (69').

The match was played at TD Place Stadium.

Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC — Canadian Premier League 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Canadian Premier League: Atlético Ottawa 3–1 Pacific FC