Atlético Onubense 0–1 Utrera: Result & Stats

Atlético Onubense

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Utrera

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense37%

×Draw29%

Utrera34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético OnubenseExpected goals in this matchUtrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.10

Atlético Onubense

1.15

Utrera

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 96 away

1.06

creates per match

1.32

0.89

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atlético Onubense

1.06

Utrera

1.32

allows per match

Atlético Onubense

0.89

Utrera

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Utrera →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw

66%

Atlético Onubense or Utrera

71%

Draw or Utrera

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+

15%

Utrera wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Onubense 2+ goals

32%

Atlético Onubense 3+ goals

11%

Utrera 1+ goals

67%

Utrera 2+ goals

30%

Utrera 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)

52%

Utrera (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Utrera attack 1.32 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more

37%

level

29%

Utrera scores more

34%

Atlético Onubense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff