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Atlético Onubense vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense41%
×Draw30%
San Roque Lepe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Onubense
1.17
San Roque Lepe
0.93

Atlético Onubense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 61 away

creates per match

Atlético Onubense
1.06
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Onubense
0.89
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw
71%
Atlético Onubense or San Roque Lepe
70%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
18%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
11%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
61%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
24%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
59%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more
41%
level
30%
San Roque Lepe scores more
29%

Atlético Onubense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Onubense 1 – 0 San Roque Lepe

Atlético Onubense beat San Roque Lepe 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez in Huelva.