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Atlético Onubense vs Puente Genil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Puente Genil
Puente Genil
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Mendoza Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense37%
×Draw29%
Puente Genil35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Onubense
1.15
Puente Genil
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 92 away

creates per match

Atlético Onubense
1.06
Puente Genil
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Onubense
0.89
Puente Genil
1.23

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par
Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Puente Genil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw
65%
Atlético Onubense or Puente Genil
71%
Draw or Puente Genil
63%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
15%
Puente Genil wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
11%
Puente Genil 1+ goals
67%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
30%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
51%
Puente Genil (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more
37%
level
29%
Puente Genil scores more
35%

Atlético Onubense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Onubense 1–3 Puente Genil

Puente Genil beat Atlético Onubense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Mendoza Campo 3 in Huelva.