Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Onubense vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Onubense
Atlético Onubense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense34%
×Draw31%
Ciudad de Lucena34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Onubense
0.98
Ciudad de Lucena
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 110 away

creates per match

Atlético Onubense
1.06
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Atlético Onubense
0.89
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw
66%
Atlético Onubense or Ciudad de Lucena
69%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+
13%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Onubense 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Onubense 3+ goals
8%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
62%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
26%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)
50%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more
34%
level
31%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
34%

Atlético Onubense at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Atlético Onubense 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena

Atlético Onubense beat Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Antonio Toledo Sánchez in Huelva.