Atlético Onubense 1–1 Ceuta II: Result & Stats

Atlético Onubense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ceuta II

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Onubense45%

×Draw29%

Ceuta II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético OnubenseExpected goals in this matchCeuta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.85

Atlético Onubense

1.23

Ceuta II

0.85

Atlético Onubense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 82 away

1.06

creates per match

0.82

0.89

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Atlético Onubense

1.06

Ceuta II

0.82

allows per match

Atlético Onubense

0.89

Ceuta II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Onubense+0.00on par

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Onubense ↓

Ceuta II →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Onubense or draw

74%

Atlético Onubense or Ceuta II

71%

Draw or Ceuta II

55%

Winning margin

Atlético Onubense wins by 2+

20%

Ceuta II wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Onubense 1+ goals

71%

Atlético Onubense 2+ goals

35%

Atlético Onubense 3+ goals

13%

Ceuta II 1+ goals

57%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

21%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Onubense (draw refunded)

64%

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Onubense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Onubense attack 1.06 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Atlético Onubense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Onubense scores more

45%

level

29%

Ceuta II scores more

26%

Atlético Onubense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Onubense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Onubense vs Ceuta II

Atlético Onubense and Ceuta II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español in Huelva.

Atlético Onubense vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Onubense vs Ceuta II