Atlético Nacional W 2–1 Millonarios W

Atlético Nacional W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millonarios W

3/10/2026

Liga Femenina · Round 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Atlético Nacional W53%

×Draw25%

Millonarios W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Nacional WExpected goals in this matchMillonarios W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.96

Atlético Nacional W

1.62

Millonarios W

0.96

Atlético Nacional W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

1.93

creates per match

1.22

0.70

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W

1.93

Millonarios W

1.22

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W

0.70

Millonarios W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Millonarios W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Millonarios W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw

78%

Atlético Nacional W or Millonarios W

75%

Draw or Millonarios W

47%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

28%

Millonarios W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

22%

Millonarios W 1+ goals

62%

Millonarios W 2+ goals

25%

Millonarios W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

70%

Millonarios W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Millonarios W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Millonarios W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.62

Millonarios W attack 1.22 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more

53%

level

25%

Millonarios W scores more

22%

Atlético Nacional W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff