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Atlético Nacional W vs Cúcuta Deportivo W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Nacional W
Atlético Nacional W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cúcuta Deportivo W
Cúcuta Deportivo W
6/10/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 15Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlético Nacional W67%
×Draw21%
Cúcuta Deportivo W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Nacional W
1.96
Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.70

Atlético Nacional W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 7 away

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W
1.93
Cúcuta Deportivo W
0.71

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W
0.70
Cúcuta Deportivo W
2.00

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par
Cúcuta Deportivo W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Cúcuta Deportivo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw
88%
Atlético Nacional W or Cúcuta Deportivo W
79%
Draw or Cúcuta Deportivo W
33%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+
41%
Cúcuta Deportivo W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals
31%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 1+ goals
50%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 2+ goals
16%
Cúcuta Deportivo W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)
84%
Cúcuta Deportivo W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Cúcuta Deportivo W away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Cúcuta Deportivo W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Cúcuta Deportivo W attack 0.71 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more
67%
level
21%
Cúcuta Deportivo W scores more
12%

Atlético Nacional W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Nacional W vs Cúcuta Deportivo W

Atlético Nacional W beat Cúcuta Deportivo W 6-0 in Liga Femenina on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.