Atlético Nacional W 4–0 Atlético Bucaramanga W

Atlético Nacional W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Bucaramanga W

5/6/2023

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 14Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Atlético Nacional W74%

×Draw17%

Atlético Bucaramanga W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Nacional WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Bucaramanga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.59

Atlético Nacional W

2.19

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.59

Atlético Nacional W creates 271% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

1.93

creates per match

0.49

0.70

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Atlético Nacional W

1.93

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.49

allows per match

Atlético Nacional W

0.70

Atlético Bucaramanga W

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Nacional W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Nacional W or draw

91%

Atlético Nacional W or Atlético Bucaramanga W

83%

Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W

26%

Winning margin

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

49%

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

89%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

64%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

37%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

45%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

12%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

90%

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Nacional W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.70 · 57 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.93 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Atlético Nacional W scores more

74%

level

17%

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

9%

Atlético Nacional W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff