Atletico Nacional 0–0 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Paulo

8/13/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico Nacional44%

×Draw28%

Sao Paulo28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Atletico Nacional

1.34

Sao Paulo

1.02

Atletico Nacional creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.16

0.88

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Sao Paulo

1.16

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Sao Paulo

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

72%

Atletico Nacional or Sao Paulo

72%

Draw or Sao Paulo

56%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

20%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

39%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

15%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

64%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

27%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Sao Paulo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sao Paulo attack 1.16 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

44%

level

28%

Sao Paulo scores more

28%

Atletico Nacional at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff