Atletico Nacional 7–1 Patriotas: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

7 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Patriotas

N. Moreno 82'

J. Duque 72', 62', 45+1', 18' (pen)

A. Castro 46', 45+2'

J. Marulanda 21' (OG)

4/18/2021

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Atletico Nacional61%

×Draw23%

Patriotas16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.76

Atletico Nacional

1.74

Patriotas

0.76

Atletico Nacional creates 129% more chances

Season form · 187 home / 105 away

1.84

creates per match

0.69

0.83

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.84

Patriotas

0.69

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.83

Patriotas

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

84%

Atletico Nacional or Patriotas

77%

Draw or Patriotas

39%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

35%

Patriotas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

52%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Patriotas 1+ goals

53%

Patriotas 2+ goals

18%

Patriotas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

79%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.83 · 187 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.64 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.84 + Patriotas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Patriotas attack 0.69 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

61%

level

23%

Patriotas scores more

16%

Atletico Nacional at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Castro

Atletico Nacional · F

10.0

Match Events

18'

J. DuquePenalty

21'

J. MarulandaOwn goal

45+1'

J. Duque↳ A. Castro

45+2'

A. Castro↳ V. Hernández

46'

D. Quiñónes← T. Ángel

46'

S. García← F. Ávila

46'

A. Castro↳ D. Quiñónes

53'

H. Solano← E. Rito

53'

S. Orozco← M. Martínez

57'

A. Cano← B. Rovira

62'

J. Duque↳ D. Quiñónes

70'

Brayan Córdoba

72'

J. Duque

74'

N. Moreno← M. Chacón

74'

J. Fory← N. Hernández

75'

Santiago Orozco

79'

Yonatan Murillo

81'

H. Palacios← J. Marulanda

82'

J. Guzmán← M. Ordóñez

82'

N. Moreno↳ J. Duque

88'

D. Carrero← M. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoPatriotas

Overview

75%Possession25%

20Total Shots8

10Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots8

10On Target1

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

16Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

654Total Passes214

569Accurate Passes147

87%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2