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Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
Preview
20:30
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
11/8/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
57%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
57%25%18%

Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%
×Draw25%
Once Caldas18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.62
Once Caldas
0.80

Atletico Nacional creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
2.01
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.68
Once Caldas
1.23

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more
Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
82%
Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas
75%
Draw or Once Caldas
43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
31%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
55%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
19%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
76%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.62

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
57%
level
25%
Once Caldas scores more
18%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • Once Caldas win just 17% of their away games
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
Once Caldas
Balanced
56%Possession53%
83%Pass accuracy82%
15.2Shots13.2
1.49xGBiggest gap1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico NacionalOnce Caldas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Atletico Nacional
3
Draws
2
Once Caldas
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
0–12–01–03–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
WLWWW
Caldas
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Atletico Nacional host Once Caldas

November 8, 2026: Atletico Nacional take on Once Caldas in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Atletico Nacional host Once Caldas at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.