Atletico Nacional 1–1 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Once Caldas

2/1/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Nacional57%

×Draw25%

Once Caldas18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.80

Atletico Nacional

1.62

Once Caldas

0.80

Atletico Nacional creates 102% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.01

creates per match

0.92

0.68

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Once Caldas

1.23

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas

75%

Draw or Once Caldas

43%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

31%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

22%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

55%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

19%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.62

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

57%

level

25%

Once Caldas scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff