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Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
A. Román 61'
1/27/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Atletico Nacional54%
×Draw26%
Once Caldas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.53
Once Caldas
0.82

Atletico Nacional creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.90
Once Caldas
0.92

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.73
Once Caldas
1.17

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more
Once Caldas+0.25scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
80%
Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas
74%
Draw or Once Caldas
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
28%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
78%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
20%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
56%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
20%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
73%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 16 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.90 + Once Caldas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
54%
level
26%
Once Caldas scores more
20%

Atletico Nacional at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
D. PabónAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · F
8.2

Match Events

53'
J. Barrera← Ó. Perea
61'
A. Román↳ J. Barrera
63'
J. Pajoy← L. Miranda
68'
L. Pico← J. Rodríguez
71'
D. Lemos← A. García
71'
M. Piedrahita← S. Jiménez
79'
Jefferson Duque← T. Ángel
79'
S. Velásquez← D. Banguero
79'
Y. Góez← J. Solis
90+2'
J. Barrera
90+2'
J. Aguirre← D. Pabón

Possession

43%Atletico

Shots

20Atletico

Pass accuracy

49%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoOnce
Overview
43%Possession57%
20Total Shots9
6Corners2
13Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots9
7On Target5
9Off Target3
4Blocked1
8Inside Box4
12Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
401Total Passes541
335Accurate Passes474
84%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Once Caldas

Atletico Nacional beat Once Caldas 1-0 in Primera A on January 27, 2023.

Goals: A. Román (61').

Once Caldas controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.