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Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
4/23/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Nacional52%
×Draw27%
Once Caldas21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.46
Once Caldas
0.82

Atletico Nacional creates 78% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.77
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.77
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
79%
Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas
73%
Draw or Once Caldas
48%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
26%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
43%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
18%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
56%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
20%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
71%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
52%
level
27%
Once Caldas scores more
21%

Atletico Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
D. BangueroAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · D
7.5

Match Events

63'
J. Barrera← G. Moreno
64'
B. Perlaza← A. Andrade
73'
F. Banguero← A. Del Valle
74'
Danovis Banguero
75'
Á. Angulo← D. Mantilla
77'
Camilo Mancilla
82'
Sebastian Gomez
85'
N. Quiñones← M. Piedrahita
85'
R. Mejía← J. Rodríguez
90+3'
S. Guzmán← M. Carreazo

Possession

65%Atletico

Shots

13Atletico

Pass accuracy

54%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoOnce
Overview
65%Possession35%
13Total Shots8
9Corners3
8Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots8
1On Target2
5Off Target2
7Blocked4
8Inside Box1
5Outside Box7
Passing
65%Possession35%
542Total Passes300
468Accurate Passes216
86%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas drew 0-0 in Primera A on April 23, 2022.

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.