Atletico Nacional 3–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Once Caldas

G. Moreno 46'

D. Banguero 11'

D. Mantilla 5'

4/21/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atletico Nacional67%

×Draw22%

Once Caldas11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.57

Atletico Nacional

1.78

Once Caldas

0.57

Atletico Nacional creates 212% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

2.14

creates per match

0.67

0.48

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.14

Once Caldas

0.67

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.48

Once Caldas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

89%

Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas

78%

Draw or Once Caldas

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

39%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

53%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

26%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

43%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

11%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

86%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.14 + Once Caldas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Once Caldas attack 0.67 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

67%

level

22%

Once Caldas scores more

11%

Atletico Nacional at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Mantilla

11'

D. Banguero

16'

S. Gomez

46'

M. García← M. Carreazo

46'

M. Piedrahita← D. Murillo

46'

G. Moreno

52'

D. Quiñonez← S. Guzmán

56'

D. Valdes← C. Mancilla

56'

F. Torijano← J. Palma

63'

M. Garcia Torres

67'

Á. Angulo← G. Moreno

67'

J. Barrera← A. Andrade

67'

68'

70'

72'

76'

R. Blanco← Jefferson Duque

80'

80'

82'

90'

Atletico

Once

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Herrera

67'▲Á. Angulo←▼G. Moreno

67'▲J. Barrera←▼A. Andrade

67'▲Jhon Duque←▼D. Pabón

72'▲A. Mejía←▼S. Gómez

76'▲R. Blanco←▼Jefferson Duque

Atletico Nacional substitutes

AnguloBarreraDuqueMejíaBlancoQuintanaPalacio

Manager: D. Corredor

46'▲M. García←▼M. Carreazo

46'▲M. Piedrahita←▼D. Murillo

52'▲D. Quiñonez←▼S. Guzmán

56'▲D. Valdes←▼C. Mancilla

56'▲F. Torijano←▼J. Palma

Once Caldas substitutes

GarcíaPiedrahitaQuiñonezValdesTorijanoOrtizRodríguez

Copa Colombia: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Once Caldas

Atletico Nacional beat Once Caldas 3-0 in Copa Colombia on April 21, 2022.

Goals: D. Mantilla (5'), D. Banguero (11'), G. Moreno (46').

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Once Caldas