Atletico Nacional 2–0 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Once Caldas

A. Andrade 69'

J. Duque 26'

10/28/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Atletico Nacional52%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.82

Atletico Nacional

1.46

Once Caldas

0.82

Atletico Nacional creates 78% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

0.88

0.77

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.77

Once Caldas

0.88

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.77

Once Caldas

1.14

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.73scores more

Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

79%

Atletico Nacional or Once Caldas

73%

Draw or Once Caldas

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

26%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

18%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

56%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

20%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

71%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 18 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.77 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

52%

level

27%

Once Caldas scores more

21%

Atletico Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Andrade

Atletico Nacional · M

7.9

Match Events

26'

J. Duque↳ A. Andrade

39'

E. Olivera

40'

D. Murillo

41'

M. García← D. Quiñonez

46'

F. Aguilar← E. Olivera

46'

H. Otálvaro← J. Cuero

48'

53'

60'

61'

69'

71'

S. Guzmán← N. Palacios

73'

S. Guzman

73'

R. Blanco← J. Duque

76'

F. Micolta← M. Carreazo

76'

A. Estacio← J. Pérez

89'

T. Ángel← D. Pabón

90+2'

M. Garcia Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoOnce

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots7

0Corners3

21Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

501Total Passes365

433Accurate Passes285

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

Atletico Nacional beat Once Caldas 2-0 in Primera A on October 28, 2021.

Goals: J. Duque (26'), A. Andrade (69').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas