Atletico Nacional 2–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia

C. Devenish 65'

D. Pabón 26'

F. Bruera 78'

F. Cardozo 48'

5/3/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico Nacional53%

×Draw24%

Olimpia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.71

Olimpia

1.06

Atletico Nacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.63

creates per match

1.24

0.88

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Olimpia

1.24

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Olimpia

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

76%

Atletico Nacional or Olimpia

76%

Draw or Olimpia

47%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Olimpia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

82%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

51%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

24%

Olimpia 1+ goals

65%

Olimpia 2+ goals

29%

Olimpia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

69%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Olimpia attack 1.24 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

53%

level

24%

Olimpia scores more

24%

Atletico Nacional at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Atletico Nacional · M

8.2

Match Events

26'

29'

29'

48'

65'

C. Devenish↳ Y. Candelo

73'

F. Cardozo

73'

F. Bruera← G. Paiva

77'

J. Romero← H. Fernández

77'

H. Quintana← M. Gómez

78'

F. Bruera↳ F. Cardozo

80'

J. Barrera← Y. Candelo

80'

Francisco da Costa← Jefferson Duque

90'

J. Romero

90+5'

J. Romero

90+5'

J. Romero

90'

R. Martínez← A. Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoOlimpia

Overview

47%Possession53%

24Total Shots12

9Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots12

11On Target6

6Off Target2

7Blocked4

12Inside Box7

12Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

383Total Passes447

291Accurate Passes350

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 2–2 Olimpia

Atletico Nacional and Olimpia drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Pabón (26'), F. Cardozo (48'), C. Devenish (65'), F. Bruera (78').

Olimpia controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 24.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 2–2 Olimpia