Atletico Nacional 0–3 Nacional Asuncion

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nacional Asuncion

2/29/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atletico Nacional61%

×Draw21%

Nacional Asuncion17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.94

Atletico Nacional

1.98

Nacional Asuncion

0.94

Atletico Nacional creates 111% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

Nacional Asuncion

1.00

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

Nacional Asuncion

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

83%

Atletico Nacional or Nacional Asuncion

79%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

39%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

37%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

86%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

59%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

31%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

61%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

24%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

78%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + Nacional Asuncion defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

61%

level

21%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

17%

Atletico Nacional at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff