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Atletico Nacional vs Monagas SC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Monagas SC
Monagas SC
1/16/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico Nacional45%
×Draw24%
Monagas SC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.63
Monagas SC
1.29

Atletico Nacional creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.25
Monagas SC
1.33

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
1.25
Monagas SC
2.00

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
70%
Atletico Nacional or Monagas SC
76%
Draw or Monagas SC
55%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
23%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
48%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
72%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
37%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
60%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.25 + Monagas SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Monagas SC attack 1.33 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
45%
level
24%
Monagas SC scores more
30%

Atletico Nacional at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Monagas SC

Atletico Nacional beat Monagas SC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.