Atletico Nacional 1–2 Inter Miami: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Miami

1/31/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club FriendlyEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Nacional40%

×Draw25%

Inter Miami35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchInter Miami

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.38

Atletico Nacional

1.50

Inter Miami

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.25

Inter Miami

1.50

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

1.25

Inter Miami

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Inter Miami+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Inter Miami →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

65%

Atletico Nacional or Inter Miami

75%

Draw or Inter Miami

60%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

19%

Inter Miami wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

19%

Inter Miami 1+ goals

75%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

40%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

54%

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Inter Miami away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.25 + Inter Miami defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Inter Miami attack 1.50 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

40%

level

25%

Inter Miami scores more

35%

Atletico Nacional at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff