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Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
Preview
23:10
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
10/25/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
51%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
51%25%24%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 185+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%
×Draw25%
Independiente Medellin24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.59
Independiente Medellin
0.99

Atletico Nacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 192 home / 185 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
76%
Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin
75%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
27%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
21%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
63%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
26%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 192 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
51%
level
25%
Independiente Medellin scores more
24%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Atletico Nacional play Possession-dominant, Independiente Medellin Defensively solid
  • Independiente Medellin outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
Independiente Medellin
Defensively solid
56%Possession55%
83%Pass accuracy81%
15.2Shots14.4
1.49xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Atletico Nacional
5
Draws
1
Independiente Medellin
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 60%
3–21–00–02–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Nacional
WLWWW
Medellin
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Nacional face Independiente Medellin (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Atletico Nacional hosting Independiente Medellin. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico Nacional host Independiente Medellin at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.